CSFI Economic Outlook: Biden's first press conference, the 'third wave' hits Europe and a new SDR allocation... Andrew Hilton's take on recent developments

Why you should watch: While US authorities have more or less given up on enforcing lockdown, EU governments are reimposing economic restrictions. That hasn't shown up yet in the numbers, but it does almost certainly mean that first quarter growth in the EU will take a tumble. In the UK, however, there is guarded optimism that official forecasts for a 4.2% q/q drop in GDP will prove unduly pessimistic. Maybe, but recent releases have been mixed at best. Meanwhile, the real losers are the poorest countries - though they may get some relief from proposals for a new SDR allocation, albeit not until the third quarter. In the background, the US-China and US-Russia spats rumble on, and the Biden Administration faces a major challenge on its Southern border. As for the UK's relations with the EU, there will be a Joint Forum - but the EU side has gone out of its way to emphasise that this is not a first step to blanket 'equivalence'.

In his Weekly Economic Outlook, Andrew Hilton, the CSFI’s Director, discusses the current crisis, its impact on the global economy, and what we may be missing.

Andrew is a former World Bank economist, who also ran a small economic consultancy advising international clients, particularly in the Middle East. He has an MA from New College, Oxford, an MBA from Wharton, and an MA and PhD from the University of Pennsylvania, where he was a Thouron Scholar and Kent Fellow.

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Produced/Edited by Alex Treptow