Published On Feb 19, 2022
The philosopher Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz had a dream. He hoped that progress in philosophy and mathematics would eventually yield a method to systematically figure out the truth. This video explores an approach to that dream that takes us some of the way there: Bayesianism. The basic idea of Bayesianism is to represent beliefs as probabilities and update them using the formal rules of probability theory to the best of our ability. In particular, Bayes' rule tells us how to update our degree of belief in a hypothesis after observing some evidence. Bayes' rule can inform many central tenets of scientific reasoning. One example is Cromwell's rule, which tells us with the language of probability theory that our empirical beliefs shouldn't be absolute dogmas, but always potentially put into question when new evidence comes in.
ERRATA:
- At 8:37, there should be P(H|e) on the left-hand side.
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
🟠 Patreon: / rationalanimations
🟢Merch: https://crowdmade.com/collections/rat...
🔵 Channel membership: / @rationalanimations
🟤 Ko-fi, for one-time and recurring donations: https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Twitter: / rationalanimat1
Discord: / discord
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀LINKS & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Arbital's guide to Bayes' rule: https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq
The bayesian view of scientific virtues: https://arbital.com/p/bayes_science_v...
@3blue1brown 's explanations:
1. • Bayes theorem, the geometry of changi...
2. • The quick proof of Bayes' theorem
3. • The medical test paradox, and redesig...
4. • Why “probability of 0” does not mean ...
5. • Binomial distributions | Probabilitie...
@measureofdoubt's explanation of bayesian thinking: • A visual guide to Bayesian thinking
Two beautiful books containing many essays on bayesian thinking and truth-seeking:
1. Map and Territory, by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://www.amazon.com/Map-Territory-...
2. How to Actually Change Your Mind, by Eliezer Yudkowsky: https://www.amazon.com/Actually-Chang...
Probability Theory, The Logic of Science, by E.T.Jaynes. This is THE book on bayesian thinking applied to science (more advanced):
https://www.amazon.com/Probability-Th...
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀OTHER STUFF▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Share this video with a friend or on Social Media: • How to systematically approach truth ...
Playlist with all the animated videos: • The Planning Fallacy: Why You Struggl...
Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf
Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
BIG thanks to our patrons & members from the simple adder tier and above:
Lexi X
רם רינגל
Ana Tomasovic
Ashten The Platypus
Bryan Egan
Calvin McCarter
Chris Chapin
Craig Ludington
Dan Wahl
David Mc
Florian
Gabriel Ledung
hr101
Jacob Van Buren
Jeroen De Dauw
JHeb
John S
Lars Osborne
Logic
Luke Freeman
Meade Marmalade
Nathan
Nathan Fish
Nicholas Kees Dupuis
Nick Sharp
noggieB
Raphaël Lévy
Roborodger
Sephiths
Superslowmojoe
Tim Duffy
Udo
Austin Cluff
Connor
Dang Griffith
FusionOak
Mark Gongloff
Matthew Brooks
Neel Nanda
rictic
Robin Hanson
Ryouta Takehiko
Scott Alexander
YouAyePee
Bleys Goodson
Dawson
Francisco Lillo
marverati
Matt Parlmer
Michael Zimmermann
no special person
Trevyn Case
William Deng
Gabriel Fair
Thomas Farago
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Script by:
- Matthew Barnett
- The guy with the weird accent
Animation by:
- :3
Narration by Robert Miles: / robertmilesai
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀MUSIC▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Brandenburg Concerto No4-1 BWV1049 - Classical Whimsical by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/...
Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-...
Artist: http://incompetech.com/
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CHAPTERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
Chapters:
0:00 - Mathematicizing truth-seeking
1:55 - Conditional probability
3:39 - Explanation of Bayes' rule
10:34 - The odds form
14:54 - Cromwell's rule
17:36 - The bayesian view of truth-seeking
