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Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss the success of Lyn's book before delving into the complexities of the current economic landscape, including the correlation between global liquidity and asset prices, notably Bitcoin. The conversation covers the bond market, inflation measures, bank insolvency issues, and the impact of fiscal policies on the economy. Lyn also shares insights on Bitcoin's price cycles.

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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:03:44 Fed/Macro review
00:15:45 Bonds; banks; bitcoin bull run?
00:27:18 Macro vs elections; wen recession?
00:36:18 High inflation; Bitcoin sentiment
00:46:04 Bitcoin is legitimate; macro forecast

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****

“The United States is just set to structurally run these massive fiscal deficits…that’s called fiscal dominance, it’s where the central bank does not have full control…because the amount of public debt and the amount of public deficits are too big and forcing them to assist it.”
— Lyn Alden

Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss the success of Lyn's book before delving into the complexities of the current economic landscape, including the correlation between global liquidity and asset prices, notably Bitcoin. The conversation covers the bond market, inflation measures, bank insolvency issues, and the impact of fiscal policies on the economy. Lyn also shares insights on Bitcoin's price cycles.

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Lyn Alden provides a comprehensive overview of the fiscal and monetary forces shaping 2023 in this podcast. She details how the Federal Reserve's tightening measures were counterbalanced by the Treasury's actions, leading to a stabilization in global liquidity measures. This balance is crucial for understanding asset price movements, with Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity dynamics serving as a prime example.

We evaluated the Federal Reserve's performance, monetized fiscal deficits and the state of the bond market. Lyn acknowledged the central bank's challenges and the limitations of their tools in addressing fiscal deficits, a primary inflation driver. Despite relying on potentially outdated models and theories, the Fed has shown adaptability in adjusting policies to the economic climate. Albeit, the level of public debt and deficits may limit the central bank's control.

Lyn posits that inflation, driven by unresolved fiscal issues and energy dynamics, could define the next decade. She discussed the historical context of high inflation and the role of gold and Bitcoin as hedges against currency crises, noting the increasing institutional interest in these alternative assets.

We covered the outlook for Bitcoin in 2024, with Lyn underscoring the importance of viewing its price in logarithmic form, revealing a pattern of resilience and potential normalization among institutions. We also discussed the need for scaling solutions in Bitcoin to make interactions with the asset easier, cheaper, and more efficient. Lyn mentioned the possibility of soft forks and covenants, aiming to empower hubs in the Bitcoin network and improve the user experience.