The Shiller PE ratio or the CAPE PE ratio (cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio) that uses 10 year average earnings to calculate the price to earnings ratio. The Shiller PE ratio is used to smoothen short term impacts like recession and other earnings issues. For example, during the 2007/2009 great financial crisis, the PE ratio went above 100 due to low earnings but the CAPE ratio went down to indicate the cheapness of the market. Low Shiller PE ratio leads to higher returns and a high usually leads to lower returns. We show regression analyses to confirm the thesis.

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