Weekly Economic Outlook: Andrew Hilton's take on the global economy, on ending the Ukraine war and on markets

Why you should watch: A bit of vindication on Ukraine? Maybe; more and more analysts are starting to focus on the 'end game', and on what sort of deal would convince both Putin and Zelenskiy to settle what has become a major economic and financial problem for the West, as well as a geopolitical and military one. But don't get your hopes up too high; there is still a political dynamic at play that stops leaders looking beyond their narrow, short-term interest. Meanwhile, the evidence on inflation is mixed. There are some signs of moderation - but they really aren't convincing. As for recession - well, it may already be here in the US, and it is certainly imminent in most of Europe, especially in Germany. As for the UK, things may not be as bad as the anti-BoJo crowd would have one believe, but that isn't saying much. We are still a market leader amongst advanced countries when it comes to inflation - even if we are not lagging as much on growth. (A bit of scepticism on the OECD's zero growth forecast for 2023 is probably in order.)

Andrew Hilton is the former founder/director of the CSFI, which he ran for more than 27 years. He began his career at the World Bank in Washington, moved to Greece, thence back to the US to run a group of financial publications for the FT. Since he came back to the UK, he has also run a small economic consultancy, Economic Evaluation (London) Ltd, which he intends to continue. He has a PhD and MBA from Penn, and was made an OBE just prior to the GFC.

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