CSFI Economic Outlook: Superman riding for a fall as the second wave engulfs us all...

Why you should watch: So, Trump's back in business - perhaps hopped up on Dexamethazone. But the polls aren't looking good for him, or for the Republicans. He could still pull a sickie. Meanwhile, despite the solid fact that deaths aren't following the rise in Covid infections, our own leaders seem intent on shutting the UK economy down - no matter what the cost in terms of jobs and economic prospects. Still, BoJo is not alone; for every politician the watchword is 'better safe than sorry' - which is fine if you have a plaudible public sector pension, but pretty crummy if you don't. Even the IMF and World Bank - whose Annual Meetings start today - have noticed. The Fund's WEO, for instance, appears to support prioritising the economy over the severity of lockdowns - which makes sense to me. Meanwhile, there are the usual siren calls suggesting that the dollar's reign as top currency may be over - which seems unlikely, even though it has taken a bit of a beating in the last couple of weeks (not least against the renminbi). On the trade front, our horse fell at the penultimate fence in the WTO race; it is now down to two - an Americo-Nigerian and a Korean, both women (if that matters). And, as usual, it is onwards and upwards for global equities, buoyed by the prospect of zero interest rates forever and ever...

In his Weekly Economic Outlook, Andrew Hilton, the CSFI’s Director, discusses the current crisis, its impact on the global economy, and what we may be missing.

Andrew is a former World Bank economist, who also ran a small economic consultancy advising international clients, particularly in the Middle East. He has an MA from New College, Oxford, an MBA from Wharton, and an MA and PhD from the University of Pennsylvania, where he was a Thouron Scholar and Kent Fellow.

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Produced/Edited by Alex Treptow