Weekly Economic Outlook: Andrew Hilton's look at recent economic, financial and geopolitical developments - and how things that are already bad enough could get even worse.

Why you should watch: This is the 111th (more or less) consecutive WEO. The problem is that nothing is settled. In particular, the Ukraine war grinds on - and, if the G7 is to be believed, Western support for a Ukrainian 'victory' is still solid (though, just maybe, it is wobbling a bit in Germany, and Italy, and perhaps even in France). Tricky one - particularly with China still bossing the BRICS, and with the US and EU miles apart on how to handle Iran's nuclear programme. Things could go awry very quickly - at a time when diplomatic and military resources are stretched, and when the Western economies are facing the triple threat of 1970s-style inflation, the growing danger of recession, and the continuing threat that asset prices (which were pumped up by cheap, or free, credit during the pandemic) are due for a very hard landing. And then there are those millions of crypto bros (and crypto broads) who jumped on the BTC/Ether bandwagon with borrowed money, secure in the knowledge that digital assets never go down... They are already starting to learn, but the learning process could have quite a way to go yet.

Andrew Hilton was the founding Director of the CSFI, stepping down in March this year. Prior to establishing the Centre, he worked for the World Bank and the FT, and continued to run his own economic consultancy business. He was educated at Oxford and the University of Pennsylvania, from which he has an MBA and a PhD. He was appointed OBE just before the GFC made the City of London as popular as the Plague.

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