For months, the junta has been losing ground in Myanmar, as ethnic rebel forces capture town after town. But whether the military government is defeated, or some form of truce is established, Myanmar may no longer be the same. The Ethnic Armed Organisations want control of their conquered regions, while the junta consolidates power in urban areas that they still control. Meanwhile, the NUG, made up of the ousted civilian government, is losing influence.

No group has authority over the whole country. When the dust settles, what emerges could be a federation, divided into smaller fiefdoms and territories. What does this mean for Myanmar and its people?

00:00 Introduction
01:03 Armed resistance groups formed after the junta's coup
03:58 Operation 1027 - turning the tide of war
05:51 Ethnic makeup of Myanmar
10:31 Are EAOs aligned with the goals of the NUG?
15:35 Junta forces deserting and defecting
18:01 How is the war being funded?
20:02 China's influence in Myanmar
23:31 Military junta conducts airstrikes against EAOs
26:18 Myanmar's refugee crisis
34:50 Ceasefire in the new year
38:13 ASEAN's role in facilitating peace
41:41 Is the solution for the NUG to return to power?

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