Jason welcomes real estate analyst Rick Sharga. Rick discusses the housing market and economic trends. Despite concerns of a crash, he suggests a slow period with modest price increases rather than a downturn. He dismisses crash predictions, highlighting historical data showing home prices generally rise during recessions. Sharga addresses factors like consumer spending, job growth, inflation, and Fed policies influencing mortgage rates. He acknowledges the possibility of a mild recession due to Fed actions but emphasizes it may not significantly impact real estate if inventory remains low and distressed sellers are scarce.

Rick also dives into the NAR lawsuit and the current state of the housing market, highlighting mortgage rates near 20-year highs affecting purchase loan applications and pending home sales due to decreased affordability. He anticipates gradual mortgage rate declines attracting more buyers than sellers, likely resulting in increased competition and rising prices. Existing home sales show a 6.5% year-over-year price increase, while new home prices have decreased by 15% from peak levels. Investor purchases remain robust, primarily driven by individual investors rather than institutions. Flipping activity has declined due to pricing challenges, but gross profits are improving, indicating a potential resurgence. 

#RickSharga #RealEstateTrends #HousingMarket #HomeSales #MortgageRates #NARLawsuit #AffordabilityCrisis #MarketAnalysis #FoxBusinessInsights

https://cjpatrick.com/

Key Takeaways:

0:00 Rick's macro view on the housing market
4:08 A different supply and demand dynamic  
7:42 GDP remains strong, unemployment and other factors
11:30 Wage growth and consumer confidence & spending and the debt trap
17:06 Inflation and the FED
20:28 FED Funds rate, the Yield curve and avoiding a recession
24:46 Overall economy
27:00 Housing market- mortgage rates still near 20-year highs
28:05 January sales up from December, but down from 2023
28:32 Inventory up 21% from last year  
29:22 New listings up 15% from historically weak 2023 numbers
31:42 The rate lock effect
33:17 Home prices are up YOY in every region of the country
35:34 New home sales bounce back after declining late in 2023
38:25 New home prices down 15% from peak 
39:14 Corelogic report: Investor share of home purchases continue to grow
40:08 Number of Flips down 30% from 2022
40:26 Even though gross margins appear to be improving
42:00 Reason for pessimism? Apartments vs. single family property
45:15 CRE distress continue to build, commercial foreclosures
45:59 Observations


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