The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing societies, waning inequality and an inflation revival - CSFI
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 Published On Oct 7, 2020

'The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing societies, waning inequality and an inflation revival': with Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan

Why you should watch: Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan have a new book out - and it is really important. It argues (convincingly) that we are at an inflection point - that twenty years of low inflation, increasing globalisation and depressed wages are coming to an end, and that we are about to see significantly higher inflation and enormous strains on government finances. Yes, inequality within countries may fall as workers' bargaining power increases, but the reversal of globalisation may increase inter-societal inequality. Much of this is baked in as a result of demography: care for the elderly will become an enormous issue. Much of it also reflects the changes in China - whose emergence lay behind the disinflationary pressure of the last couple of decades. These changes are going to pose huge problems for policy-makers - and they are going to ensure that 'the future is nothing like the past'. Charles and Manoj discuss their book, and Roger Bootle (whose 1996 book, 'The Death of Inflation', spotted an earlier inflection point) kicks off the response. With Jane Fuller.

Moderators: Andrew Hilton (Director, CSFI) & Jane Fuller (Co-director, CSFI)

Panellists:

Prof Charles Goodhart is an Emeritus Professor at LSE, where he was co-founder of the Financial Markets Group and, for many years, the Norman Sosnow Professor of Economics. He is a former chief adviser at the BofE and a Member of the Bank's MPC.

Manoj Pradhan is Chief Economist and founder at Talking Heads Macro, which provides structural macro-economic analysis. He is a former MD at Morgan Stanley, with a PhD from George Washington University.

Roger Bootle is Chairman and founder of Capital Economics, and a columnist at the Telegraph. He is a former Group Chief Economist at HSBC and is the author of many books, including The Death of Inflation, The Trouble with Markets and, most recently, The AI Economy.

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Produced/Edited by Alex Treptow

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