Nuclear Risk Reduction in the Baltic Sea Region
(19 July 2023, Public Lecture, University of Cambridge)

The Centre for Geopolitics and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, with support from the European Leadership Network, were pleased to jointly host a panel on Nuclear Risk Reduction in the Baltic Sea Region.

Vladimir Putin’s decision to install nuclear weapons in Belarus follows threats about the use of nuclear weapons from Kaliningrad, Russia’s Baltic territory. The war in Ukraine has raised the salience of these threats and has blown away any doubts that European security is under severe strain. Though the main focus of the Russians remains their war in Ukraine, the risk of conflict in the Baltic Sea region remains very much alive. These threats explain the significant increases in defence spending in many European states, and the radical shift in public and government alignment which has led to the path of both Finland and Sweden to formal NATO membership.
In these circumstances nuclear risk reduction has become an important topic of debate, but there is a lack of clarity about how this could best be addressed. Proposals to reduce nuclear risks fit broadly into three areas: military (nuclear) force posture (capabilities); military (nuclear) doctrine (intention); and communication and relationships (understanding). All are important and ideas might range from hardened lines of reliable communication to restraint in deployments (including a Baltic nuclear weapon free zone). But one indisputable element is the need for better communication links and understanding, both between allies and adversaries. The uncertainties caused by both political realignments and emerging disruptive technologies such as AI and cyber have uncertain and potentially revolutionary impacts.

Panel:
Artis Pabriks, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia 2004-2007, Minister of Defence of Latvia (2019-2022) and Director, The Northern European Policy Center

Dr Marion Messmer, Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme at Chatham House

Paul Ingram, Academic Programme Manager, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and former
Executive Director of the transatlantic British American Security Information Council 2007-19

Chair: Rt Hon Charles Clarke former Home Secretary and Co-founder of the Baltic Geopolitics Programme at Cambridge

The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) is an interdisciplinary research centre within the University of Cambridge dedicated to the study and mitigation of risks that could lead to human extinction or civilisational collapse. For more information, please visit our website:
https://www.cser.ac.uk
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