Andrew Hilton's (last) Weekly Economic Outlook: Looking ahead to a very difficult couple of years

Why you should watch: The CSFI is in hibernation mode, so this is Andrew Hilton's last Weekly - at least for a while. He is scathing about the potential successors to BoJo - and about their almost universal belief in the 'magic money tree'. That said, the recent fall in commodity prices might offer some temporary relief on inflation. Still, interest rates around the world are deeply negative in real terms - and, with governments reluctant to grasp the fiscal nettle, central banks have no choice but to go on jacking up reference rates. As for the UK itself, it faces a pretty bleak future - but one that is not much different from the problems other advanced countries face. If there is any silver lining, it is that we are all in it together. The only thing that might change the outlook is an end to the war in Ukraine. Hilton's view is that opinion might be shifting, and that there might be a greater willingness to give Putin some kind of face-saving 'off ramp'. The alternative - particularly for Germany, but also for other EU member states - is a pretty ghastly winter. Oh, and then there's China (with its quixotic 'zero Covid' strategy) and the 'Pink Tide' swamping Latin America. Not to mention a roaring global food crisis... Not a happy prospect.

Andrew Hilton is the co-founder and long-time director of the CSFI, who stepped down at the end of February. He is now (reluctantly and semi-) retired, splitting his time between Greenwich, Suffolk and the end of Long Island. In a long(ish) career, he has been a World Banker, a financial journalist, an economic consultant and a part-time academic. He was educated at Oxford, Wharton and Penn, and has lived and worked in Washington, Athens, New York and London. He was made an OBE immediately before the GFC.

Andrew Hilton is the former founder/director of the CSFI, which he ran for more than 27 years. He began his career at the World Bank in Washington, moved to Greece, thence back to the US to run a group of financial publications for the FT. Since he came back to the UK, he has also run a small economic consultancy, Economic Evaluation (London) Ltd, which he intends to continue. He has a PhD and MBA from Penn, and was made an OBE just prior to the GFC.

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